Worldwide Threat Assessment Unclassified Record

by Administrator 13. February 2012 08:09

 

If you didn’t hear about it, the US Intelligence Community provided the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence with testimony pertaining to a Worldwide Threat Assessment.  Those of you who protect others for a living, especially those of you who travel internationally, support a multi-national corporation or who are just interested in keeping your fingers on that particular pulse may be interested in reading the Unclassified Record of that assessment.  It is posted at: http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20120131_testimony_ata.pdf 

Review of this testimony indicates a world full of turmoil and some interesting analysis on a post UBL world, the impact of the Arab Spring and what we are apparently now calling Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs).  Like we didn’t have enough acronyms to try and remember these days, right?  It is interesting reading and current events that is relevant to all of us.

 

My Thoughts on the Somali Pirate Situation

by Administrator 25. February 2011 02:48
As many folks know by now the killing of the people on the Quest by Somali pirates as the US Navy and the FBI negotiated for their release is very regrettable.  The New York Times printed an article, referenced by yesterday's Security Management Daily newsletter, titled: Seizing of Pirate Commanders Is Questioned.  As the US Navy and the FBI attempted to deal with this hostage taking situation they were reportedly unable to talk with land pirate commanders / co-conspirators.  So working through their way down the list of options available to them they got to the point where they maneuvered a ship closer to the yacht to attempt "face to face" negotiations.  A couple of pirates were brought aboard and eventually a decision was made to detain them as they didn't appear to be negotiating in good faith and the negotiator(s) attempted to open dialog with someone within that group that could negotiate on behalf of the kidnapping pirates and who had the authority to negotiate in good faith.  That's probably a more common circumstance than is publically known.  I would imagine it is akin to negotiating with prisoners after a prison riot.  The negotiators have to work their way through various factions to find a leader who can exercise authority over the rest of the criminals.

Now here's my point to this whole thing.  Actually, there's a couple of them.  1) the folks aboard the yacht were apparently sailing in a group prior to being taken over and consciously made a decision to break off from that group and sail into waters known to contain great risk of encountering Somali pirates.  So they chose to be there doing that.  That was their choice to make and they made it.  It would seem they had either a great tolerance for risk or underestimated their either their ability to fend off pirates or their chances of encountering them.  Whatever the reason, they apparently made a bad choice.  2) Somali pirates are criminals  and there is no such thing as honor among thieves.   But the New York Times doesn't note any of that, they just seem to want to paint the US Navy and the FBI in a bad light and since they don't cite who is calling the detention of those pirate commanders into question we are left to believe it is the New York Times themselves.  Great, let's blame the folks who volunteer to put themselves into harm's way and protect others, willingly move towards the sound of gun fire and take on the challenge of dealing with very dangerous and dynamic situations, often having to make snap decisions that the arm chair quarterbacks sitting back home in air conditioned offices worrying about the price of gas can call into question while sipping on a vanilla latte. 

One quote in the article does at least provide some insight into the issue:   “While the pirates clearly knew, from the beginning of our negotiations, that we were not going to allow the Quest to make shore, they gave no warning, no visible signs whatsoever that the hostages’ lives were in danger,” said the military official. The senior law enforcement official added, “These incidents, by their very nature, often move at a rapid pace which requires difficult decisions in real time.”

Whoever those military and senior law enforcement officers are, they phrased their position well.  How about let's blame those who committed the crime and urge people not to put themselves at unreasonable risk that will eventually cause those that volunteer to put themselves in harm's way to have to put themselves into harm's way to get the victims of that piracy industry out of hock. 

At ITG, we'll send gratitude to the US Navy, the US Navy SEALS who boarded that yacht and took control and the FBI negotiators all of whom are far away from home and who have volunteered to put themselves in harm's way.  Apparently, one of the SEALS even had a hand to hand combat situation and came out on top in a knife fight!  I don't know that SEAL and he can't see me right now but this Old Soldier is standing at attention and presenting arms to that SEAL and his team, the US Navy and the FBI, none of whom could even get near a vanilla latte.

You can also bet that all of those groups, the SEALS, the Navy task force and the FBI are doing after action reviews and picking the operation apart to see if there are any lessons learned that they can apply the next time they have to put themselves in harm's way to get some pirate victims out of hock. 

I bet that the New York Times isn't doing an after action review to figure out why they blame that group publically for the outcome and not the criminals  that committed the crime. Frankly, I think that article, though not the worst of breed, illustrates what's wrong with some of the media in this country and not what's wrong with the FBI.  To read the article yourself go to: 


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International News | US News

Terrorism Case: North Carolina Man Pleads Guilty in Terrorism Case -ChicagoTribune.com

by Administrator 10. February 2011 09:10

This is a follow up to the post: Warnings of Domestic Terrorist Threats 

The Chicago Tribune also published an article today about Daniel Patrick Boyd, the North
Carolina man who is accused of leading a terrorist group, pleaded guilty on Wednesday to
charges of conspiring to provide support to terrorists and engaging in a conspiracy to
murder, kidnap, maim, and injure people.  Daniel is, in police parlance AKA (also known
as) Saifullah (meaning Sword of God).  This guy made it a family affair and is a good
example of US Citizens jumping on the Jihad bandwagon.  The Tribune doesn't exactly say
what this fellow plead guilty to conspiring of in this article:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/la-na-terror-plea-20110210,0,533607.story
but a copy of his indictment can be found and downloaded at
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/national/20090728_terror_indictment.pdf.  If you
read that indictment, you'll note that other people including four other US citizens, two
naturalized citizens and a legal permanent resident are also identified under this Grand
Jury indictment...

To quote a former boss of mine:  "Oh joy, oh rapture..."

Tags:

International News

'Home-grown' terror threat increasing: report - Yahoo! News UK

by Administrator 5. February 2011 09:03
Guess some other report got leaked to Wikileaks that discusses British fears of more
homegrown terrorist suicide bombers. Just great, huh?  Well, the information is true -
they would be very hard to find especially if they were lone wolf actors.  For more see
this article that came out in today's OSAC Newsletter:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20110203/tuk-home-grown-terror-threat-increasing-86ac183.html

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International News

EU Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management - Commission Staff Working Paper

by Administrator 4. February 2011 12:47
The European Union issued its COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER pertaining to Risk Assessment
and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management today.  If you're interested in reading it,
the document can be downloaded from this link:
http://ec.europa.eu/echo/civil_protection/civil/pdfdocs/prevention/COMM_PDF_SEC_2010_1626_
F_staff_working_document_en.pdf


Just it has just been issued, I haven't had time to read it myself yet so can't really
comment on it but know many of you will be interested in looking it over.

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International News | What We're Watching

Haiti Presidential Election and President Rene Preval

by Administrator 4. February 2011 12:42
Well hooray for Haiti, President Preval and the international community on this one!
Apparently, the much contested candidate for the run-off presidential elections in Haiti
has announced that he's stepping out of the race.  That opens the door for a run off for
the two candidates deemed most legitimate for that process by the majority of the
population and by the international community.  That's a good thing for the democratic
process in that still fledgling democracy.  Democracy in that country didn't really start
until the 1991 election of Jean Betrand Aristide and has had a rocky path ever since.

The overthrow of the first Aristide administration by the military, backed by many of the
affluent people in the Caribbean island nation, was followed by a couple years of rule by
military junta, US President Clinton's intervention in Haitian affairs in returning
President Aristide to office in 1994 during Operation Restore Democracy after the signing
of the Governor's Island Accords, the first peaceful transition of power in about 183
years of that nation's independence when President Preval was elected to his first term in
office.  There was a second peaceful transition in power, when President Preval turned
over the reins to President Aristide's second administration.  But that one too, was
marred by Coup D'Tat when former Haitian Army members, and others, overthrew that
constitutionally, though arguably flawed, elected government through force of arms in
2004.  I'm still bewildered that they let the former Haitian Army Colonel that was widely
seen as the leader of that rebellion run for the office of the president of that country
while President Aristide's former Prime Minister, Yvon Neptune was arrested and
incarcerated.  As a former US Army Criminal Investigator, I'd say that if former Prime
Minister Neptune deserved that fate, well ok.  But I'm back to the fact that one of the
basic tenets for a democracy to be successful is that the rule of law must be respected
and applied evenly. I'm not sure that former Prime Minister Neptune was afforded the
benefits of due process of law while I am sure that the Colonel was benefited from
impunity for his actions.  Therefore the due process of law was certainly NOT followed in
these cases. Perhaps it was the fact that the Colonel still had his armed band of fellow
rebels at hand and Prime Minister Neptune was a easier target with less ability to fight
back that was the overarching principle on that one.  Anyway, the coup was followed by an
interim government that I'm not sure met the criteria for that kind of thing established
in the Haitian constitution but it was peaceful and there was a peaceful transition of
power from that interim government when President Preval was elected again and assumed his
second tour in office.

There has been some speculation on the street that President Preval would not support
removing his party's candidate from the run-off, declare a state of emergency and attempt
to stay in office a bit longer.  It seems that he did not take that track and bravo for
him!  Though he will stay in office until the runoff election is completed - which
actually extends his term of office.  There are provisions in the Haitian constitution,
just like is in ours, that allows for an President to serve more than two full terms as
President in terms of the amount of time one can spend in office.

So here's hoping that this still fledgling democracy is taking off and that the democratic
process is beginning to take hold and get its feet a bit more firmly planted on the ground
there.  For more on this story read an article that was referenced by today's US State
Department Overseas Advisory Committee in their daily newsletter:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110203/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/cb_haiti_election

The situation does still have the potential to remain volatile and there is potential for
the political situation to get even more cloudy than it already is.  Baby Doc is still in
country and is free, not under house arrest, but is undergoing a judicial review.
President Aristide may be issued a Diplomatic Passport by the Government of Haiti and
there is potential for him to come back.  He remains wildly popular in certain sectors of
the population and his political party still exists, though Haiti's Election Commission
denied them the ability to register candidates for this last Presidential election.  If he
comes back, his mere presence may fracture the political landscape a bit more.

So I go back to my main word when looking at the various issues surrounding Haiti since I
first got involved in working in that country in 1994:  It sure is an interesting place to
watch...

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International News

Latin American Herald Tribune - Former Haitian Dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier Charged with Embezzling

by Administrator 19. January 2011 07:51
Well, yesterday we said it would be interesting watching Haiti.  No democracy can exist,
or function well, without adhering to the rule of law.   Yesterday many reports of "Baby
Doc" being arrested surfaced in the media and he was taken into "custody" before his
scheduled press conference.  Now, it will be interesting to watch how this "rule of law"
will move forward.  The actions taken yesterday are about like what we'd call a Grand Jury
investigation - it appears there is an investigative effort begun to determine if there is
enough evidence to indict and bring criminal charges bounding Baby Doc over for trail.

While our constitution is largely based on British law, given our roots that is
understandable, the Haitian Constitution and legal system is largely based on the French
system.  That is also understandable given their roots. That means there are some
differences and some of them are foreign to our minds if we attempt to view them from a
purely American perspective.

So some kind of legal process has begun and it will be interesting to watch it unfold.
But one question is whether this is truly a move according to the "due process of law" or
is it a move to keep Baby Doc from further complicating an already complicated political
landscape.  Time will tell and it will remain interesting to watch.  As you check out this
article from the Latin American Herald Tribune, keep another thing in mind:  In order for
a democracy to truly exist, the law must be applied equally to all.  In both its
protections and its use for adjudicating criminal and civil legal matters.  Our Department
of Justice, along with Canadian and French efforts, under various programs, have spent a
lot of funds and made extensive effort to help that criminal justice system in Haiti stand
up after Operation Restore Democracy in 1994.  I think it was struggling before the
earthquake and that it surely was negatively impacted by damage and loss of critical
infrastructure during the earthquake but it has a chance to show the world that it has its
feet under it.

It will remain a story to watch and there are plenty of other actors in that nation's
history that should come under similar scrutiny.  I, for one, hope that as they move
forward there is progress in both adherence to the rule of law and the fair application of
it within the nation.

For more information on the actions of yesterday, take a look at the article I referenced:

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=384408&CategoryId=10718

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International News

Haiti Rumors Fly as Ex-dictator Stays Mum in Hotel

by Administrator 18. January 2011 10:37
Most of you know that we have deep connections with The Republic of Haiti so one of the
issues that we are watching with great interest is the return of former dictator "Baby
Doc" to Port au Prince.  One word that has always characterized our decade and a half
connection with Haiti is the word "interesting."  I can take you to a place, that is
several acres large which was the dumping grounds of the victims of political crimes and
reprisals during the Duvalier regimes, well before the earthquake.  You literally could
not place your foot down anywhere when I first went there in late 1994 or early 1995
without stepping on human remains.  There were bed sheets, woman's night gowns, small
plastic infant sandals, small skulls with bullet holes in the sides of their heads
everywhere.  Crabs still prowled the place looking for scraps of flesh and ligaments to
eat. The place screamed of nights of terror that allegedly occurred during the Duvalier
and subsequent General Cedras regimes.  It wasn't even a mass grave, it was just a dumping
grounds for the bodies of the victims of these murders that clearly included whole
families.  I asked a colleague, why the kids?  The only answer we could come up with was
that by killing the children, they kept them from growing up and becoming future enemies
filled with hatred against them and becoming potential adversaries.

My trip there was to provide security for former President Aristide, under the US State
Department contract, while he participated in and watched as members of the Catholic
Church from Haiti's now demolished National Cathedral consecrated the ground.  One of the
events was to plant some palm trees in the ground and the idea was to make the place a
living memorial.  Holes had been dug to place these young palm trees in and I could
observe bones at every depth of the hole protruding into the holes that the trees were
being planted in.  One elderly lady was so moved by the event that she broke through the
cordon of security as then President Aristide placed a tree into one of these holes and
started filling the hole to securely plant the tree.  This elderly lady grabbed what
appeared to be a human rib bone and started helping to fill that hole in by using that rib
bone to scoop dirt into the hole. It was so moving to watch her do this and she clearly
presented no threat to our protectee so we just let her continue.  She wasn't crying, she
was smiling.  She was clearly a relative of someone killed during that time frame and
likely dumped there and was happy that the ground was being consecrated, recognized and
memorialized.

I can also tell you that when I first went to Haiti's National Palace in 1994 there was an
indoor pistol range on the ground floor of the building.  We looked at it as something to
possibly restore in order to provide training opportunities for our security agents and
for the fledgling Haitian Presidential Security Unit - Haiti's then newly trained Secret
Service equivalent.  Though I doubt that forensic examinations were ever done, I can tell
you from personal observation that there appeared to be human hair and bone fragments
along the backstop wall which was constructed of slanted metal bars that served to deflect
the rounds downward into a bullet trap.  Having been a criminal investigator in the US
Army, that was what we would have called a clue.  That clue was that executions may well
have been carried out there.  By whom, I know not but I doubt they were buttering pigs for
dinner in there...

There are also two solitary confinement cell areas in the Dessalines Barracks area of the
National Palace Compound.  The Dessalines Barracks is where the unit of Haiti's Army that
used to provide protection for the President(s)/Dictator(s) used to live.  Those barracks
are an integral part of that National Palace Compound.  When you went to look at those
cells, the interior of those doors were lined with sheet metal.  People who had been
confined there appeared to have tried to peal that metal back with what had to be their
bare hands in escape attempts or out of pure frustration.  Though curious about what the
graffiti on the walls of those cells might have said, I was almost glad I couldn't read
the Creole it was written in.  I can tell you without doubt that while I remained
connected with the presidential security operations there during parts of three
administrations, neither that range nor those cells were ever used for those purposes
during that time frame.  Felt kind of like we made something of a difference there...

Later in my career, I got to lead another US State Department protection contract, one to
Bosnia and Herzegovina. This was shortly after the Dayton Peace Accords were signed.  I
had occasion to take our Principal to Srebrenica where international forensic
anthropologists we exhuming mass graves as it was alleged that the Serbians killed some
8,000 Bosnian men and boys from that community and dumped them in mass graves during that
war. Looking for evidence of crimes against humanity and war crimes I guess.  At least
they had them buried, though probably not out of decency but more likely motivated to
conceal the evidence of their crimes.  From that moment on, I always wondered why the
international community didn't do the same thing for the obvious atrocities committed in
Haiti and why no one ever did the same forensic examination thing at that desolate dumping
grounds in Haiti that I have described...

What will be interesting, especially in light of the contested election results, will be
to watch what the Haitian Government and Criminal Justice System does and what the
international community calls for in this case.  Given that a former Haitian Army Officer,
Guy Phillipe, was allowed to run for president in that country after leading an armed
overthrow of their constitutional government in 2004, allegedly killing several members of
the Haitian National Police at various locations within that nation and at least two
border guards at a crossing between Haiti and the Dominican Republic during that process,
I'm not sure justice is something that has taken hold yet in that still developing
democracy.

As the following article will show, current President, Rene Preval, has publically stated
before that if Baby Doc ever returned to that island nation, he would be arrested and
prosecuted.  So far, that hasn't happened. If it doesn't then Jean Bertrand Aristide may
well try to become then next comeback kid, for the third time, as well.

Now this is all interesting, at least to us, to watch...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110118/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/cb_haiti_ex_dictator_returns

Tags:

International News

Homeland Security Today: Violent Homegrown 'Jihadists' Discussed in Congressional Report

by Administrator 11. January 2011 03:24
A Congressional Research Service report on homegrown jihadists was updated in December and has some interesting points to ponder.  The full article published by HS Today contains a link where you can download the actual report if you want to read it.

The opening paragraph of the article reads: "A Congressional Research Service (CRS) report on homegrown jihadists updated in December stated that “violent jihadists may exhibit a number of conventional shortcomings when compared to international terrorist networks such as Al Qaeda," and that "homegrown violent jihadists ... possibly lack deep understanding of specialized tradecraft such as bomb making."

This scares me a bit as I believe it leads readers to underestimate this growing problem.  The very next paragraph reads: "Because of this" CRS stated" "they may turn to violence requiring less preparation, such as assaults using firearms."

Well, it seems to me that the terrorists using firearms (and explosives less than VBIED size) cause quite a bit of havoc in Mubai, we have seen major "active shooter" incidents across our nation that have been very hard to deal with.  So I think they're soft selling the issue a bit here.  Can't wait to read the whole report. Take a look and see what you think about the issue.
 

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International News | US News | What We're Reading

Inspire Magazine is Already Inspiring People

by Administrator 11. January 2011 03:12

Unfortunately, but predictably, it looks like "Inspire" magazine is already "inspiring"
people.  Check out this article:
 

An al-Qaeda link in British terrorism case?

By Karla Adam and Edward Cody

Washington Post Foreign Service 

Thursday, December 30, 2010

LONDON - Nine men arrested in Britain on terrorism charges last week found inspiration and bombmaking instructions in an English-language Internet magazine published by the group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, British investigators reportedly said.

The revelation, relayed by British newspapers, provided the first purported link between the nine British-based suspects, some of Bangladeshi origin, and an anti-Western terrorism campaign being waged by Yemen-based jihadists of Yemeni, Saudi, U.S. and other nationalities under the aegis of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Continue reading the full article at the Washington Post... 

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International News

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